Unfortunately, WordPress is acting up and if I try to change the date on the post, it changes the URL. Something of a pain, you might imagine.

So I consolidated by making this post. Head over to that other one!

25. Beau Mills, 3B, CLE - This kid may not be an amazing fielder, but boy can he hit. His bat could be just what the Indians need to ascend to championship level in a few years.

24. Mike Moustakas, SS/3B, KC - Dayton Moore and his staff knew just what they were doing when they took this kid second overall in the 2007 draft. Scott Boras says that he plays just like A-Rod did at the same age, which may be a bit of a stretch, but he’s got potential, and lots of it.

23. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, OAK - While he may be given a shot at a starting job with the talent-stripped A’s, I hope that Billy Beane holds off on it. While Gonzalez is a toolsy outfielder with good potential, he needs more minor league seasoning to work on his plate discipline.

22. Wade Davis, RHP, TB - Whether he sticks in the rotation or moves into the bullpen is still a question that the Rays have to worry about, but I think it’s clear that he’ll have a place on a team sometime soon.

21. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK - As if his minor league numbers weren’t ridiculous, Barton only put up a 186 OPS+ in a 72 at-bat major leage call-up, complete with a strong walk ratio. His bat is clearly ready for the majors, but is his glove?

20. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN - Strong minor league numbers in combination with a strong major league call-up and good speed out of first base make this young man the first baseman of the future for Cincinatti.

Looking to the Past: Harang was first drafted by the Rangers in 1999 out of college. He was solid but not dominant for the Rangers, posting a 2.31 ERA in rookie ball in 78 innings and then later a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings in High-A. Billy Beane shrewdly snapped him out of the hands of the Rangers in exchange for utility man Randy Velarde. Harang struggled in 150 innings in double-A for the A’s posting a 4.14 ERA. The next season, he went back to dominance, and he pitched 78.3 innings for the A’s, though he struggled in those innings. He continued to struggle the next season, and Billy Beane let Harang slip through his fingers, sending Harang off to Cincinnati for Jose Guillen. Harang struggled again as a 26 year old in 2004. However, 2005 was the season that Harang really hit his stride, throwing 211.7 innings of 112 ERA+ ball. His 163-51 K-BB ratio was strong and he posted those numbers in front of a weak Cincy defense in the tough pitching environment of the Great American Ballpark.

In 2006 and 2007, Harang improved upon his numbers, posting almost identical lines both seasons. You can see his stats in the chart:

2006: 16-11, 6 CG, 234.3 IP, 242 H, 109 R, 98 ER, 28 HR, 56 BB, 216 K, 3.76 ERA (124 ERA+), 1.272 WHIP
2007: 16-6, 2 CG, 231.7 IP, 213 H, 100 R, 96 ER, 28 HR, 52 BB, 218 K, 3.73 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.144 WHIP

Those numbers were among the leaders for his league in both seasons, excluding his ERA and WHIP, both of which were strongly influenced by park and team factors. These numbers show a few key aspects that highlight how good of a pitcher Harang is. Durable, consistent, and all in all a much better pitcher than his numbers look like on the surface.

Looking to the Future: As you have seen, Aaron Harang has been a very good, consistent pitcher for a team that has struggled to find either of those qualities in their pitchers lately. However, what can we expect in the future? After all, Harang only really had three great seasons, and those were only after hitting his prime.

I think that Harang’s career will continue on it’s current path; he’s not an elite pitcher like Johan Santana, and he’s obviously no Hall-of-Famer. However, based on his track record I would be surprised if he had a significant regression anytime soon; in fact, I would expect him to post similar numbers for at least two years before we could see any regression at all. But, then, how do I account for his late breakout?

The way I see it, Aaron Harang struggled with a ailment I like to call Tall Pitcher Syndrome early on. I will be discussing TPS later this week, but the jist of it is that, tall pitchers, because they have more moving parts and more things to worry about as they mature, take more time to develop. Harang is 6′7″, which puts him on the lower end of TPS cases, but it’s still a legitimate claim.

Crystal Ball: Without any sort of advanced prediction system or method, I will predict the following stat lines for Harang:

2008?: 225 IP, 200 H, 100 R, 95 ER, 30 HR, 55 BB, 220 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.133 WHIP

Based on his past performance, I think that this is a reasonable estimate for how he does this upcoming season. Hopefully for the Reds, he puts up this line or better.

In fact, there is. Pandora Internet Radio is an amazing tool that has been around for some time now. Though the service is now restricted to people living in the United States only due to raised royalty fees, everyone can still enjoy the music recommendation program provided by the Music Genome Project; American users just have the added advantage of the Pandora music player.

The premise is simple. You enter a song or artist you want to listen to similar music to, and then the player will give you similar songs or artists. The more artists you rate via a Thumbs Up/Thumbs Down system, the more accurate the player gets. After some time on the player, it gets amazingly good at predicting what music you want to hear.

In addition, the player provides you with multiple radio stations. You can have a separate station for rock, jazz, or even classical. Unfortunately, the player does have several limitations - for example, it is not a music on-demand service - it will only play similar songs, not a specific song on-demand. In addition, you can only skip six songs per hour - any more than that and it doesn’t let you skip songs anymore. However, after the settings adjust to the music you like, that no longer becomes much of a drawback as you will only very rarely find yourself skipping songs.

In addition, there are Pandora players out there that you can download and use from your desktop outside of the browser window. I am currently trying out OpenPandora, which has some pretty useful features on it in addition to the ones that are standard to Pandora.

Even if you aren’t in the United States, the service does provide the Backstage options - you can find out about different artists and songs similar to your tastes even outside of the US.

This service may sound kind of silly but trust me, it works.

First Round
Pat Burrell - As much as Phillies fans hate to admit it, the first overall pick in 1998 was a success. Though Pat Burrell hasn’t performed at the superstar level, he has been a very consistent and disciplined hitter through the years. (Phillies)

Mark Mulder – This pick was a huge success for the A’s – Mulder dominated for the team for five years before being sent off to the Cardinals in exchange for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton. Since then, Haren turned into an ace, Calero was a solid middle reliever, and Barton became an excellent prospect. Meanwhile, Mulder has succumbed to injuries. Hopefully for the Cardinals, he can get healthy again. (A’s)

Corey Patterson – Whether or not he is a good player or not, the facts are that he has stuck at the major league level, and according to my rules, that’s a success. (Cubs)

J.D. Drew – Love him or hate him, he is a very good major league hitter, he has played at a high level for many years, and he was by all means a successful draft pick. (Cardinals)

Austin Kearns – He has yet to break out despite years of forecasted breakouts, but he has contributed for several seasons at the major league level. (Reds)

Felipe Lopez – Along with Kearns, he has also never really broken out in the way that scouts predicted, but he has managed to hold his own at the major league level. (Blue Jays)

Carlos Pena – A year ago, I would have been much more iffy on saying that Pena really stuck at the major league level, but I think that at this point it’s safe to say that he’ll probably be able to at least hang around. (Rangers)

Adam Everett – As bad as he may be of a hitter, he makes up for it with his spectacular glove. (Red Sox)

Jeff Weaver – Terrible pitcher he may be, but he has hung around in the majors and probably will continue to do so. (Tigers)

Kip Wells – Despite his struggles the past few seasons, it remains a good likelihood that he will continue to hang around in the majors in a similar fashion. (White Sox)

Brad Lidge – A hugely successful pick, considering how dominant of a closer he had been up until Pujols attempted to destroy his career. There remains a good likelihood that he can recover his career with his new team, the Phillies. (Astros)

C.C. Sabathia – Only recently did he break out, but he has broken out in a huge way, taking Cy Young honors in 2007. Expect him to go after a huge contract sometime soon. (Indians)

Jason Tyner – As much as he struggled to hit his first home run in the majors (it only took him seven seasons), he has managed to hang around the majors as a bench player. (Mets)

Matt Thornton – He only recently really made it to the majors, but he dominated in 2006, and the tall man has a good chance of sticking around. This was a questionable call for me, but I decided to write him down as a success. (Mariners)

Compensation First Round
Brad Wilkerson – He has hung around the majors since 2001, posting average to above average numbers each season, a success. (Expos)

Aaron Rowand – Though he just clocked in a huge new contract with the Giants, he has managed to put up numbers near average with strong defense. Of course, that doesn’t change the fact that the contract that the Giants gave to him was terrible. (White Sox)

Second Round
Gerald Laird – He hung around the Rangers bench for several years until he finally got a chance to shine in 2007 as the starting catcher. He proceeded to post even worse numbers than Rod Barajas’ numbers the previous year. Still, he fulfills the criteria. (A’s)

Adam Dunn – The Reds got Adam Dunn in the second round, a good value pick considering that the man hits 40 home runs yearly in addition to 100-110 walks. (Reds)

Brandon Inge – Though he only had two above average seasons, he fits the criteria in that he hung around the majors for so many years. However, now that the Tigers got Miguel Cabrera it seems likely that he is on his way out. And good riddance. (Tigers)

Third Round
Mike Maroth – As mediocre of a pitcher as he has been, he just fits the criteria. (Red Sox)

Josh Fogg – As mediocre of a pitcher as he has been, he just fits the criteria. Sound familiar? (White Sox)

Fourth Round
Jason Michaels – A team could do worse than having this guy on their bench. (Phillies)

Javier Lopez – Only recently became really successful, but it doesn’t seem like such a long shot that he will continue to be successful as a reliever. (D-Backs)

Fifth Round
Josh Hancock – Until his tragic accident last year, he was mildly successful as a reliever. Included on this list more out of respect than anything. (Red Sox)

Scott Proctor – Only relatively recently did he become what we could consider a success, but it seems likely that unless his arm does break down under continued abuse from Joe Torre, he will continue to be a successful middle reliever. (Dodgers)

Aubrey Huff – He has declined a bit recently, but he had a few excellent seasons in there, and I would guess that while he won’t return to his past levels of performance, he will continue to provide an above average bat. (Devil Rays)

Sixth Round
Bill Hall – He had a few really strong seasons, including a 35-homer 2006, but struggled in 2007. He is going to be just 28 in 2008, and it seems like a strong possibility that he could bounce back and put up some pretty good numbers for the Brew Crew. (Brewers)

Seventh Round
Matt Holliday – Only recently did he break into the majors, but what a breakout! He just barely missed the MVP award last season, and he seems poised to continue taking advantage of Coors Field. It’s not easy to measure how much of his amazing performance is caused by Coors, but it seems apparent that it is a significant portion. (Rockies)

John Buck – He had a strong start to 2007 before slumping to return his statistics to his career norms. Still, there seems a good chance that he will continue to hang around the majors. (Astros)

Eighth Round
Eric Byrnes – He has provided average hitting in almost every city he’s gone too, a valuable characteristic. (A’s)

Joe Kennedy – Kennedy was an interesting player who hovered between spot starting and relieving almost everywhere he went. It is a tragedy that he died, and he will be missed. (Devil Rays)

Ninth Round
Ryan Madson – He has contributed as a reliever, and he will be only 27 in 2008, which gives him good odds of sticking around. (Phillies)

Jack Wilson – An above average defensive shortstop who has provided terrible offense year-in and year-out. Still, he has hung around and been successful as a major leaguer. (Cardinals)

Morgan Ensberg – He used to be a very good hitter, but he has declined rapidly recently. He still provides a very good eye at the plate, but his ability to hit for average and for power at the plate has dropped drastically. (Astros)

Thirteenth Round
Juan Pierre – As mediocre and overrated he has been, he fits the criteria in that he has hung around the majors for several years now. (Rockies)

Fourteenth Round
Jay Gibbons – As mediocre as he has been, he has managed to stick around at the major league level for several seasons now, a mediocre hitter as a starter. (Blue Jays)

Fifteenth Round
Geoff Geary – As his Baseball Reference page says, “It’s not always pretty, but he gets it done.”(Phillies)

Seventeenth Round
Eric Hinske – A roughly average corner infielder and outfielder, always a useful player. (Cubs)

B.J. Ryan – Bounced around in the majors before the Orioles picked him up and turned him into an elite closer. (Reds)

Ty Wigginton – A roughly average hitter who has bounced around the infield almost as much as he has bounced around to different teams. (Mets)

21^st Round
Nick Punto – Punto was drafted by the Phillies before being sent to the Twins to spread his mediocrity in the AL Central. (Phillies)

38^th Round
Mark Buehrle – Quite a good deal there, getting your future ace in the 38^th round. Major props to the Sox on this one. (White Sox)

Wrap-Up
Two teams tied for the most successful picks in the draft – the Phillies and the White Sox had four apiece. This doesn’t necessarily mean that they had the most profitable draft, as the quality of said players may not have necessarily been that great. This draft seemed very weak to me, though I really only have one season to base that comparison on.

That’s where GuerrillaMail comes in. GuerrillaMail gives you an instant 15-minute email address to use for registration on a website. GuerrillaMail even allows you to check your email to click any confirmation links that are provided. A simple solution to a complex problem.

Note: I am not an expert on the Yankees, nor do I pretend to be. I am merely posting my opinion based on all the scouting info I have read and what I have seen of these players

1. Joba Chamberlain (right) - The most hyped-up Yankee prospect in many years, he clearly has talent. The only question with Joba is when, not if, he’ll ascend to stardom.
2. Ian Kennedy – Some people are down on his talent because he doesn’t display as much upside as some prospects out there, but the facts are: He will be a 23-year-old starter with excellent control, at the major league level, who has had success at every level he has pitched at. You don’t find prospects much better than that.
3. Jose Tabata - The 19 year old phenom is entering the territory where he needs to start producing to move up anymore. The natural talent that we all know he has is going to kick in sometime soon and hopefully we will see him rise rapidly through the ranks.
4. Austin Jackson - After struggling to start off the season, A-Jax was promoted to Tampa, causing outcry among prospect watchers; he responded by going on fire and playing better than he had ever played before.
5. Alan Horne - Some prospect watchers call this young man overrated and say that he just got lucky. However, the former first round pick has talent; the key for him is staying healthy, and in 2007 he managed to achieve that.
6. Jesus Montero - The main question with this young talent is whether he can stick at the grueling position of catcher. He will never be a defensive-oriented catcher, but if things work out for the best he could be a successful offensive-minded catcher.
7. Dellin Betances (Right) - He hasn’t really done much in the time that he has been in the Yankees system, but he’s young, and is likely experiencing what I like to call, “Tall Pitcher Syndrome” - tall pitchers generally take longer to experience a breakthrough than do shorter pitchers.
8. Francisco Cervelli - Cervelli had an interesting 2007 season, starting off very strong and then dying down as the end of the season came around. Because of this, many questions about his durability have risen. I am more than optimistic that this young talent will be able to take over the position of catcher for Jorge Posada, and fill in the job admirably.
9. Jeff Marquez - Call me crazy, but he’s a young pitcher with good upside, close to the majors, and the potential to be a major league starter. He is the player in the Yankees organization who I’d say is most likely to be traded sometime soon as he gets passed by more prospects, but I would be more than happy to have him in the system.
10. Juan Miranda - The Cuban first baseman still has a ways to go to reach the major leagues, and he is already kind of old for prospect status, but I believe that there is a good likelihood that sometime in the next few seasons he will take over the first base position for the Yankees.
11. Zach McAllister - A young pitcher with a good arm for getting ground balls and a huge amount of upside. The Yankees have so much young pitching depth, and even in an organization as packed as the Yankees have, this 20-year-old next season is one of the top prospects.
12. Andrew Brackman - He has given us more than enough reason to worry that he may never even reach the majors, but he has so much upside that there is still the possibility that he becomes a right-handed Randy Johnson. And that’s just amazing.
13. Humberto Sanchez - I’m more than a little bit worried by his spotty injury history, but he has the potential to be a front-end starter or an amazing reliever.
14. Mark Melancon - If you asked me which player had the best chance of becoming and elite closer for the Yankees, the answer would be Mark Melancon. He needs to recover from Tommy-John Surgery, which is a feat in of itself.
15. Carmen Angelini - A major talent out of the draft last year, he could become an elite prospect very soon with a strong performance.
16. George Kontos - His 2007 season was not amazing, but you have to be impressed with his 101-30 K-BB ratio, and he’ll be 23 next season in most likely High-A Tampa.
17. Brett Gardner (Right) - He is very close to the majors and will likely be either a bench player for a contender or a starter for a non-contender.
18. Dave Robertson - Overwhelmed at every level he played at last season, starting in Single-A Charleston and ending up in Double-A Trenton. He could start the season in Trenton in ‘08 and finish in the bigs. His 113-32 K-BB in 84.1 innings as a 22 year old is just plain dominant.
19. Brad Suttle - His performance so far has been more than underwhelming, and he lost third base with the new contract given to A-Rod, but he has good upside and could be a big trade-bait candidate.
20. Ryan Pope - His performance in Low-A was strong but not as dominant as it could have been for a 21 year old; however, scout Carlos Gomez, who analyzes player mechanics, was in love with the mechanics Pope brought to the table, which is a big deal considering how stingy Gomez was with giving out the kind of praise Pope got.

Honorable mention would go to Daniel McCutchen, who I think is a big breakout candidate.

I’ll get started tomorrow with a look at some free chat clients. They are all worth a look and hopefully it will be interesting.

-Ron