Player Feature: Aaron Harang

Unless you pay a lot of attention to the Cincinatti Reds, you may not realize just how good of a pitcher Aaron Harang is. Though he is somewhat out of the spotlight and less of an outspoken guy compared to teammate Bronson Arroyo, he lets his arm speak for him. His numbers the past few seasons have been more than solid, and when you consider the environment he pitches in, you realize how much of an ace Harang is.

Looking to the Past: Harang was first drafted by the Rangers in 1999 out of college. He was solid but not dominant for the Rangers, posting a 2.31 ERA in rookie ball in 78 innings and then later a 3.32 ERA in 157 innings in High-A. Billy Beane shrewdly snapped him out of the hands of the Rangers in exchange for utility man Randy Velarde. Harang struggled in 150 innings in double-A for the A’s posting a 4.14 ERA. The next season, he went back to dominance, and he pitched 78.3 innings for the A’s, though he struggled in those innings. He continued to struggle the next season, and Billy Beane let Harang slip through his fingers, sending Harang off to Cincinnati for Jose Guillen. Harang struggled again as a 26 year old in 2004. However, 2005 was the season that Harang really hit his stride, throwing 211.7 innings of 112 ERA+ ball. His 163-51 K-BB ratio was strong and he posted those numbers in front of a weak Cincy defense in the tough pitching environment of the Great American Ballpark.

In 2006 and 2007, Harang improved upon his numbers, posting almost identical lines both seasons. You can see his stats in the chart:

2006: 16-11, 6 CG, 234.3 IP, 242 H, 109 R, 98 ER, 28 HR, 56 BB, 216 K, 3.76 ERA (124 ERA+), 1.272 WHIP
2007: 16-6, 2 CG, 231.7 IP, 213 H, 100 R, 96 ER, 28 HR, 52 BB, 218 K, 3.73 ERA (125 ERA+), 1.144 WHIP

Those numbers were among the leaders for his league in both seasons, excluding his ERA and WHIP, both of which were strongly influenced by park and team factors. These numbers show a few key aspects that highlight how good of a pitcher Harang is. Durable, consistent, and all in all a much better pitcher than his numbers look like on the surface.

Looking to the Future: As you have seen, Aaron Harang has been a very good, consistent pitcher for a team that has struggled to find either of those qualities in their pitchers lately. However, what can we expect in the future? After all, Harang only really had three great seasons, and those were only after hitting his prime.

I think that Harang’s career will continue on it’s current path; he’s not an elite pitcher like Johan Santana, and he’s obviously no Hall-of-Famer. However, based on his track record I would be surprised if he had a significant regression anytime soon; in fact, I would expect him to post similar numbers for at least two years before we could see any regression at all. But, then, how do I account for his late breakout?

The way I see it, Aaron Harang struggled with a ailment I like to call Tall Pitcher Syndrome early on. I will be discussing TPS later this week, but the jist of it is that, tall pitchers, because they have more moving parts and more things to worry about as they mature, take more time to develop. Harang is 6′7″, which puts him on the lower end of TPS cases, but it’s still a legitimate claim.

Crystal Ball: Without any sort of advanced prediction system or method, I will predict the following stat lines for Harang:

2008?: 225 IP, 200 H, 100 R, 95 ER, 30 HR, 55 BB, 220 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.133 WHIP

Based on his past performance, I think that this is a reasonable estimate for how he does this upcoming season. Hopefully for the Reds, he puts up this line or better.